SINGAPORE, one of my home bases, is about to hit 80% of fully vaccinated residents. This is quite remarkable, as experts say that an 80-90% full vaccination rate will likely allow countries to build herd immunity in the current state of this Delta-variant-driven epidemic.
Japan, my other base, has just passed 40% full vaccination rate and the number continues to grow at a fast pace. Amongst all countries in the Asia Pacific (APAC ) region that are using Western vaccines such as Pfizer and Moderna, Japan is now the second fastest vaccine roll-out country after Singapore.
Kei Shibata, co-founder & CEO of TRAVEL jp & Trip101
Here in the United States, where I am spending summer this year, the vaccine roll-out seems to have hit a plateau. The full vaccination rate is a little above 50% and the number has not been moving up much recently.
You may recall that in the early innings of this pandemic game, Asia was leading the world in containing cases. But when the world got into the mid innings, countries like the US and UK led the world by making head starts on vaccine rollouts. We are now getting into the late innings (hopefully!), which is driven by the Delta variant, and that has changed the ball game. In this stage of the game, the bar seems to be much higher for every country to control the infections via vaccines. Since it is now projected that 80-90% vaccine coverage is required for achieving herd immunity, and we are seeing breakthrough cases as it seems evident that the vaccine’s effectiveness lessens over time, countries are scrambling to get shots into peoples’ arms.
Unfortunately, many Asian countries are now severely suffering from the spread of the Delta variant, as the vaccine rollouts have been slow. However, I have begun to think that this situation may possibly turn out to be a boon for Asian countries. If the vaccine rate continues to be what it has been in Asia we will quickly outpace some Western countries in vaccine coverage. I would argue that this current, tough situation may be creating a great sense of urgency amongst people in Asia, and they are now extremely motivated to get vaccinated – just like when people in the US and UK rushed to get the vaccine after the wild spread of the virus last year.
Based on this hypothesis, I am predicting that many Asian countries will end up with higher vaccination rates in the coming quarters, and that they could surpass the numbers in the US and other Western countries. And they will also potentially reach the level needed to achieve herd immunity.
If this scenario becomes true, Asia can once again lead the world in controlling the spread of Cov-19id, and position itself to be global leaders.
But there is one thing that is as important as high vaccination rates for these Asian countries to claim this position. That is a much stronger commitment to open economies, including the borders, by accepting the trade offs. I am eager to see that in the coming months and quarters.
Note: The opinions expressed in this article are that of the author’s. Kei Shibata is the co-founder & CEO, TRAVEL jp & Trip101.
• Featured image credit: Dzemidovich Getty/Images
