Travel recovery needs to move from “Las Vegas principle” to “Olympics model”, says Subhas Menon
THE backdrop isn’t pretty. After 20 months into the pandemic, Asia Pacific airlines remain in hibernation as far as international passenger traffic is concerned – still at five percent of 2019 levels while other regions such as Europe and the US are nearing 40%.
In fact, according to the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA), 2021 is worse than 2020 for its members, with cargo the only bright spot but hardly enough “to execute the recovery of the airline community,” said its director general Subhas Menon.
However AAPA wants to take this moment to ensure that when recovery happens, it will be a prettier picture – “safe, sustainable and seamless”, which is why it announced today a goal of net zero emissions by 2050, a more ambitious target that surpasses the existing industry commitment to halving carbon emissions by 2050.
Speaking at an AAPA media roundtable, he said, “We are at a critical juncture. We have spent 20 months in hibernation, and we want to use the remaining time to put plans into motion so that when we restart in the not too distant future, we will have strong momentum to sustain the restart and move into full recovery in the course of the next few years.”
He said aviation was facing two endemic issues – Covid-19 and the long-standing one of the environment which the industry has been trying to address for some time.
Addressing Covid-19 and travel recovery, he said the world was currently divided into two halves – “one where people are travelling and one with those who wish they could”.
Well, we know which half Asia Pacific is in. International passenger traffic of Asia Pacific carriers remains in statis – at 5% of 2019 levels – while other regions such as North America and Europe are reaching almost 40%.
In fact, for Asia Pacific international air passenger traffic, 2021 has been worse than 2020, while international cargo demand has recovered to pre-pandemic volumes.
Menon said vaccine inequity needs to be addressed. In Asia Pacific, with the exception of Singapore, China, Mongolia, Cambodia and Malaysia, most economies with large population bases are below the global average of vaccination – which is 29%.
“Even developed economies such as Japan, South Korea and Australia are having to work hard to increase their pace of vaccination,” he said.
Along with addressing inequities in vaccine distribution and recognition, there is also a need to address that of travel policies. “Most places are operating on the Las Vegas principle – which is whatever happens here stays here – whereas we need to move to the Olympics model where everyone plays by the same rules and have an equal opportunity to get to the finishing line,” said Menon.
“We need to come up with a plan to streamline, smoothen and simplify requirements and guidelines and hopefully governments will start talking to each other. Once that is done, we can take a step-by-step approach to greater freedoms for vaccinated residents and travellers, starting with quarantine-free travel to places with high levels of vaccination and for visitors to be admitted from places with high levels of vaccination.”
Asked by WiT if he expected the 5% number to inch higher by the end of the year, Menon said, “To be very honest, it is difficult to imagine it going beyond what it is already by year end. Vaccination levels are still lagging within the region and we will see inter-region travel first, rather than intra-region.”
On addressing the other endemic issue of sustainability, Menon noted that the cooperation of multiple stakeholders including governments, air navigation services, fuel suppliers, airports, aircraft and engine manufacturers would be essential to its successful achievement of net zero emissions by 2050
An all-out effort based on a combination of technology, operational improvements, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), and a global market-based measure, namely the ICAO Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) is needed.
Sustainable aviation fuels are expected to feature heavily in the industry’s overall reduction in carbon emissions by almost completely replacing fossil fuels on commercial flights by 2050. Support from governments and other stakeholders to commercialise SAF through research & development, subsidies, incentives, as well as the allocation of resources for its development and distribution, will be crucial to ensure adequate and cost-effective supplies to meet the needs of the airline industry.
Significant quantities of SAF will be needed by the industry as 80% of emissions are from flights over 1500 km, for which aircraft powered by alternative energy sources, such as electricity and hydrogen, are not available.
Menon said, “The Asia Pacific region will constitute some 40% of global SAF demand, but production and supply facilities in the region are lacking. Allocation of sufficient resources to convert feedstock, like municipal or agricultural waste, waste oils from food production and other biomass for the production of SAF will make a critical difference.”
Compounding these challenges is the fact that its now-14 members – Korean Air left the association a couple of months ago – are facing the biggest crisis in their history and governments in the region are more preoccupied with battling the resurgence of infections than paying heed to aviation sustainability matters.
However, Menon said, “We know it’s a challenging longterm goal but it can be achieved through the collaboration of all stakeholders. The industry has always done things together and we come together in times of need to achieve what’s necessary.
“Covid-19 has diverted attention of governments to other immediate priorities, since they agreed to CORSIA in 2016. They will turn their attention to sustainability again.”
He said the airline industry was ready and preparing, and focused on ensuring recovery is ushered in with safe, sustainable and seamless practices and processes. “We want to address the concerns of the consumer to show that, as an industry, we are moving forward on sustainability.”
Asked if alternative forms of transportation and technology could play a part in substituting air travel in Asia Pacific – as is being encouraged in Europe by the flight shaming movement – Menon said it was hard to say but “even between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, rail hasn’t taken off yet and in many parts of Asia, it is not possible for anything other than air travel.
“Logically, it would be a huge challenge to replace flying with other forms of transport but never say never. If technology improves and political hurdles are overcome, then it could be possible.”
