So assuming we all live past December 21, 2012, the big question on everyone’s lips is, what will 2013 be like?

It’d be a no-brainer to say “mixed” because that’d cover all eventualities. It’d also be no surprise to hear the word “cautious”.

Pictured right: Shangri-La’s Rasa Sentosa Reosrt and Spa, Singapore

At the CAPA World Aviation Summit in Hong Kong, I heard that word a lot – as Europe and the USA continue to struggle with economic problems, and overall growth in China and India slows down, the global picture remains murky.

The Middle East is one of the strong pockets with strong regional load factors and driven by the three carriers, Emirates, Qatar and Etihad, should yield good growth for the following year.

There are also other strong pockets in emerging markets like Indonesia, the Philippines, Brazil, Nigeria and albeit they are from smaller bases, the pace of growth is encouraging.

Home in on specific opportunities in specific markets and the picture gets even brighter, and it is clear the winners in 2013 will be those who take the right bets on the right markets and make the right play.

And one market where almost everyone will be going after will be the affluent segment in China. In its “Age of the Affluent” report, the Boston Consulting Group says that “at 120 million strong and with $590 billion (RMB 3.7 trillion) of buying power, the affluent class is not yet as large as the emerging and current middle class combined, nor does it have the same spending muscle. But it is growing fast.”

By 2020, it projects that this segment will grow to 280 million, which will account for more than 30% of its urban population.

The report says that the spending of the affluent will grow fivefold to $3.1 trillion, about 35% China’s total consumption and more than 5% of global consumption. It will also be nearly as much as Japan’s total consumption, 28% greater than that of Germany, and three times more than South Korea’s total consumption.

Two companies that have this segment clearly in their sights are Cathay Pacific and Shangri-La.

Last month, Shangri-La launched the hotel industry’s first co-branded credit card, the Mingshen Shangri-La Credit Card. The aim is “to increase loyalty for Shangri-La, gain market share and increase revenue,” said Kent Zhu, group director of sales and marketing (pictured above left).

“We also want to get a first mover advantagein the frequent traveller space by offering the best luxury travel co-branded card in the market. With a co-branded credit card, members and guests can earn GC Points for free nights on everyday spend and accelerate the earning through “double dip” for spend at Shangri-La.”

The target is to have more than 300,000 cards within three years, he said.

John Slosar, CEO of Cathay Pacific (pictured right), at the CAPA World Aviation Summit called China “an interesting place” when he talked about his airline’s bid to grow premium travel to more than 40% of total revenues.

It’s a market with 78 million international outbound projected to grow to 120 million by 2018, he said, adding, “This is good for everyone and it will depend on how you get at it.”

How Cathay will get at it is tap into the market’s slant towards premium travel. Consumers are showing a healthy appreciation for brands, there’s a high propensity to trade up and Cathay sees opportunities both in premium business and premium leisure.

Corporate travel is also growing in Dragonair – a growth of 33% this year – and 50% of that traffic is at the premium end, he said.

The top sectors by industry mix are IT, followed by manufacturing, property and construction. “‘Finance is number 5, unlike other markets where it is number 1,” observed Slosar.

Zhu says he is seeing these trends:

He adds, “International hotels should watch out for new airline routes from Chinese cities. The Chinese are very receptive to new destinations and due to sheer volume of travelers, a new service will very likely bring good volume from China. The airlines are very aggressive in expanding their international footprints.”

On the outlook for 2013, he predicts, “Domestically, as the economy improve, business travel will be back to double digital increase. Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen will do very well even with new supply. For outbound, besides leisure traffic increase, we will also see more business delegations looking for new investment opportunities. Resorts will see good traffic increases from China, especially within Asia Pacific.”