“Price increases in 2013 will begin to level off in most regions throughout the world compared to what travel buyers experienced in 2012, as booming economies like Asia Pacific’s begin to normalize, and as uncertainty remains in Europe,” said Nick Vournakis, senior vice president, global product marketing & CWT Solutions Group.
“While slightly higher prices will be the reality again next year as demand for travel outpaces supply in most places, our forecast demonstrates there is still plenty travel buyers can do to watch costs and take care of travellers through other measures, including re-examining how they influence traveller behaviour.”
Growth in Asia Pacific stabilises, modest price increases
- Airline prices should increase about 2.5% in the APAC region during 2013, largely due to the number of low cost carriers (LCCs) entering the market and holding pricing down from what would typically be observed in this part of the world.
- Average daily hotel rates in APAC will likely increase about 3.5% in 2013. Singapore will lead the way with an 8% increase amid strong travel demand and lagging supply. Meanwhile, prices in Hong Kong will also increase more than the regional average as clients shift from 4-5 crown properties to 3-crown.
- APAC car rental rates will likely experience the highest inflation of anywhere in the world. CWT forecasts a 5.9% increase in 2013. Rates in Australia and New Zealand will perform quite strongly due to increased demand and more tightly managed fleets.
- Meetings & events spending will increase about 6% while group sizes will decrease around 3.8% as organizations attempt to mitigate rising supplier prices by holding a larger number of smaller meetings with fewer attendees and shorter durations.
The Latin America (LATAM) region continues to experience overall economic growth, though significant disparities continue to exist. which will create varied travel pricing by country next year.
The newly formed LATAM Airlines, which is now the world’s second largest airline by market value, will embark on its first full year of operation in 2013 that may result in improved routes and frequencies to, from, and within the region.
- Two pricing scenarios exist in LATAM’s air segment. Countries with healthy economies like Brazil and Chile will experience solid price inflation, while countries with weaker economies like Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru expect moderate decreases to only slight growth. Due to this CWT expects 2013 airline pricing in the region to increase 1.3%overall.
- Average daily hotel rates in LATAM will likely rise about 6.3%during 2013. Brazil will see the largest increase in hotel rates, and in fact, is the only nation in CWT’s entire 48-country forecast expected to see double-digit price increases next year. This is due to strong demand and limited supply. However, this will soon change as inventory is rapidly being added in Brazil to accommodate the 2014 FIFA World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics. Even underperforming economies will experience noteworthy price inflation given continued international demand amid stagnant construction pipelines.
- Car rental rates will likely increase 1.4% during 2013, primarily due to US-based brands expanding operations in the region to meet increasing demand. However, Brazil-based Localiza is a major player that will offer an added element of competition to international suppliers in that market specifically.
- Per attendee per day spending increases for meetings & events in LATAM will be the highest in the world, with average increases of 11%. Meanwhile, group size will decrease about 7%. As in Asia Pacific this dynamic will occur as buyers seek to offset higher supplier costs.
North American economies steadily improving, rates to follow
While the economies of the United States and Canada are experiencing slow and steady improvement there is no major growth expected for the foreseeable future, which will help contain travel price increases in 2013 for most categories of spend.
- CWT forecasts airline pricing in North America to increase by 2.8% during 2013. Carriers in both countries will continue to stay disciplined about controlling capacity to ensure demand outpaces supply, enabling them to raise prices.
- Average daily hotel rates will likely increase 3.2% throughout next year. As always, increases will vary by market, with the top business destinations able to command much higher prices. Western Canada will experience particularly high increases based on an influx of foreign demand for the area’s energy and mining resources.
- For yet another year car rental firms in North America will struggle to raise prices in 2013, as the marketplace remains highly competitive with only a few existing suppliers available to battle for corporate business. Given this reality CWT forecasts pricing to decrease 1.1%.
- Meetings & events spending continues to grow, with an average 4.8% increase expected in cost per attendee per day, along with an average 6% increase in group size. Booking windows have increased 5% as organisations feel more confident about the future, thus advance bookings for 2013 are already strong.
Watch video: CWT Solutions Group expert commenting on the Americas forecast
Continued economic uncertainty in Europe, Middle East & Africa limits price increases
While Europe continues to face mounting economic uncertainty, most Middle Eastern and African economies are faring reasonably well. As such, the region overall will experience moderate travel price increases in 2013, though the tenuous economy could prompt significant changes at any point.
- Airfares will likely climb 2.5% during 2013, as carriers have been diligent in implementing tight capacity controls that continue to yield high load factors despite economic concerns.
- Average daily hotel rates will likely increase 1.3% during 2013. A decrease in post-Olympic demand for hotel rooms in London will bring 2013 rates down there. Meanwhile, increased interest in 3-crown properties is expected throughout France as brands invest in upgrading those offerings.
- CWT is also forecasting slight gains in car rental rates, with an increase of 1.2% in 2013. Recent consolidation in the EMEA marketplace, combined with aggressive growth plans of traditionally low-cost providers, is creating increased competition that will hold down prices.
- High-speed rail rates will likely increase 4.3% during 2013 as this mode of transportation continues to offer a competitive alternative to air travel in key markets. Notably, increases of up to 9% are expected in premium-class cabins where corporate travelers typically ride to access free wireless Internet and other amenities.
- Meetings & events spending will increase less than in other regions, with 1% increases expected in costs per attendee per day. As a result, there will be less pressure on EMEA- based organizations to reduce group sizes to offset higher prices, which will produce slight increases of about 3%.
Watch video: CWT Solutions Group expert commening on the EMEA forecast
• Read the full CWT 2013 Travel Price Forecast
