WHEN I wrote the original post, 7 Stages to the New Normal, revisited – “the lack of progress haunts my thinking”, much of it was based on conjecture and crystal ball gazing – admittedly guided by decades of observation of our industry.
It has been nearly 18 months since the first effects of the global pandemic hit us all. Recovery and hope was part of the goal to putting together the 7 stages. With the benefit of hindsight we can see that we have a slightly different, but in my view clearer, prognosis. However, the stages have largely stayed the same.
The biggest change has been that we now have a way out of the pandemic. Vaccines are the game changer here. But for international travel the axiom – none of us are safe until everyone is safe – applies. Thus, we have a bifurcation that has occurred. Domestic travel in USA and China is rebounding but International travel stays in the doldrums.
Getting back to a new normal (perhaps not the ideal “new” normal) requires better management. We have new friction to a return. Inconsistent government rules and high costs of testing are leading candidates to this friction.
But there remains one large element that has become the elephant in the room. Airlines and government stakeholders alike continue to treat the pandemic as a temporary situation. These players and the travelling public need to have security and the return of trust. Until that is sorted out, we will continue to have depressed international travel. Business Travel will not return. We must learn to accept a different definition of normal.
The sooner we get there the better for the whole industry.
Timothy O’Neil-Dunne is a principal at 777 Partners, and the views expressed here are his own.
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